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Why Real Estate Investors
Should Disregard Most Housing Stats

By: Paul Howard, Florida Landlord Network



Here is A U.S. Market Overview of Housing Dated September 2024:


  • Average U.S. home prices: Home prices dropped slightly in Q2 2024 to an average of $501,700, down from $519,700 at the end of Q1.  -- Irrelevant to investors
  • 30-year interest rates: As of September 16th, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.12%, down from 7.29% on the same day last year. -- Likely very relevant to investors
  • Median days on market: The median days on the market was 37 days, up six days year over year. Days on market is a good indicator of buyer demand.  -- Irrelevant to investors
  • Homes sold above list price: In August 2024, 30.1% of homes in the U.S. sold above list price, down 6.1 percentage points year over year.  -- Irrelevant to investors
  • Average starter home mortgage payment: Monthly housing payments for starter homes sold in July were $1,981, up 4.4% from a year ago. By definition, a starter home is a smaller, more affordable house, typically falling between the 5th and 35th percentiles in sale prices. -- Irrelevant to investors


Overall, the above statistics are about families who buy or sell a personal residence. The buying and selling price of these homes is largely emotional and rarely includes economic calculations. Instead, they are based on comparable sales plus or minus certain "feel good" elements.


Rental investors should never pay attention to comps because investors do not buy buildings; they buy return on investment (ROI).


Thus, in theory, every investor considering a particular piece of property should calculate about the same maximum purchase price based almost entirely on their personal ROI target.


Here is a simple example of an all cash sale:


Asking Price: .....................................................................................................................................................................$400,000

  • Number of rental units: ....................................................................................................................................................................................2
  • Monthly Gross Rent per unit: .........................................................................................................................................................$1,500


Estimated Income

  • Annualized Gross Rent: ..................................................................................................................................................................$36,000
  • Estimated vacancy loss: ............................................................................................................................................................................5%
  • Annualized vacancy loss: .................................................................................................................................................................$1,800
  • Adjusted Gross Income: ................................................................................................................................................................$34,200


Estimated Expenses

  • Management Fee (% of Adjusted Gross Income)...........................................................................................................10%
  • Dollars: ...............................................................................................................................................................................................$3,420
  • Maintenance Rate (% of Adjusted Gross Income)..........................................................................................................5%
  • Dollars: ................................................................................................................................................................................................$1,800
  • Property Tax (% of Asking Price)......................................................................................................................................................1.8%
  • Dollars.................................................................................................................................................................................................$7,200
  • Insurance.......................................................................................................................................................................................................$3,000
  • HOA Dues (See "Never buy a property if there is an HOA")...............................................................................$500
  • Total Expenses........................................................................................................................................................................................$15,920


  • Net Income (Adjusted Gross Rent minus Total Expenses)..........................................................................$18,280


  • Return on Investment (Net Income divided by Purchase Price).................................................................4.6%


Thus, if the investors’ target ROI is 6%, he/she must reduce the offering price accordingly.


This is why real estate investors are rarely affected by market gyrations. It does not matter what was the selling price of the property next door. The question is how much rent the property will produce.

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